Will the Arab Spring Come to Jordan?

Jordan's King Abdullah II

Under pressure from domestic Islamists, Jordan's King Abdullah II is offering concessions to devolve power to the parliament and the people. The Muslim Brotherhood says it's not enough.

The party list system favors larger coalitions with an ideological agenda such as the Islamists, while the district-based system tends to return tribal pro-government candidates who muster local support from their particular clan and relatives.

But the Brotherhood and others say...that the elections will result in an ineffective parliament filled with palace loyalists.

This is yet another example of the type of bottom-up pressures that Middle Eastern leaders have faced since the deposition of Shah Pahlavi and, more recently and appropriate to the Arab context, since the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.

The question is, will the reforms lead to any substantive change, and will that change look more like Egypt's revolution or Tunisia's?