Russia warns West over Syria after Obama threats
Russia warned the West on Tuesday against unilateral action on Syria, a day after U.S. President Barack Obama threatened "enormous consequences" if his Syrian counterpart used chemical or biological arms or even moved them in a menacing way... Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking after meeting China's top diplomat, said Moscow and Beijing were committed to "the need to strictly adhere to the norms of international law ... and not to allow their violation".
Read the article linked above and share your analysis of this situation in the comments. Why should Americans care about what goes on in Syria? Why would Russia and China be upset about the potential for American intervention?
China and Russia have vetoed US involvement in Syria three times now, citing international law as their reasoning. However, without US backing, the rebels' chances of overthrowing Assad's regime are slim. Assad will remain in power and China and Russia both will have an ally in the Middle East, which the US desperately needs.
ReplyDeleteThat takes care of the domestic issue, but I am confused about the current policy of containment, or if there is one. I would think that it would be best for China, Russia, and the US to contain the violence, instead of allowing to spread to Lebanon, Turkey, and Israel. What is the current policy of containment?
It's hard to say if there is really a policy now. The original "containment doctrine" was specifically directed at Communism. The Bush Doctrine--that we will confront states that harbor terrorists--is the closest we have today and it doesn't really apply to this situation.
DeleteYou bring up a good point about international law, though. What good is international law if it doesn't allow the powerful to stop regimes from killing their own people?
Assad himself may fall in the future but his government may not. Russia and China know the weakness an unpopularity of Assad in the face of the opposition and nearly every other country, but the American government is acutely aware that the situation in Syria has a huge chance of falling into a chaotic situation where Shia, Sunni, Christian, Druze, Arab, and Kurd alike are all at conflict with one another.
ReplyDeleteTurkey is having difficulties with its Kurdish population even now, Iraq is openly allowing Syrian jets to raid agains Sunni insurgents at the cost of its own airspace integrity, and Lebanon and Israel can only watch the situation without making any comment on what would be the best solution for the Syrian crises.
Amidst the deteriorating power of the army and the continued defections and assassinations of officials, other members of the government may try to get rid of Assad and try to formulate a new way forward either as they are now or with a few of the many fractured factions of the opposition. Intervention by foreign powers would not only complicate matters even more, but also may run the risk of causing renewed violence in Iraq and Turkey. In the end, with the possible collapse of state looming in Syria actors may decide to destroy chemical weapons and other treats only after it becomes clear that the state cannot hold them. Only then is the risk factor of attacking a nation's arms stockpile lesser than the risk of war with the state.
A very well-balanced analysis. Thanks, Cameron.
DeleteSince this blog was first posted the Syrian civil war has continued to escalate. On October 25, the Syrian government declared it would suspend military operations from October 26-29 during the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. This cease fire ultimately failed since not all of the rebel groups agreed to it. The conflict in northern Syria has also escalated in the last couple of months. On November 18, the rebels captured Base 46, one of the largest military bases in northern Syria. On November 22, the rebels captured the Mayadeen military base. Most recently on November 29, the Syrian government imposed a nationwide internet blackout which has left the majority of Syrians isolated from contact with the outside world.
ReplyDeleteWith the Syrian civil war becoming increasingly internationalized it is important for Americans to understand why the Syrian civil war is prevalent to the United States. First of all, the United States is undoubtedly the world super power which means that other countries will look to the foreign policy of the United States for guidance in how to handle the situation in Syria. Secondly, the geographic location of Syria is of great importance to the United States. Syria is in the center of the Middle East which means the destabilization of Syria could result in the overall destabilization of the Middle East. Also, Syria’s geographic location is of utmost importance to the United States because the conflict and violence in Syria could spread to Iraq and undo all the time and investment the United States has put in Iraq. This is extremely likely since Syrian refugees have already been displaced and fled to the countries that boarder Syria, including Iraq. Thirdly, the Syrian civil war may affect the global and American economy. Although Syria does not produce as much oil as other countries in the Middle East, there is still the possibility that the violence in Syria could affect global oil prices. This would ultimately affect how much American people pay for gas. These are just a few of the reasons why Americans should care about what goes on in Syria.
Another important question to ask is why Russia and China oppose intervention in Syria. Russia and Syria have historically been linked since the end of World War II. Russia has supported Syria both politically and economically. Currently, Syria is Russia’s closest Middle Eastern ally. Russia also has economic ties to Syria. Russia has been selling military equipment to Syria since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia has continued to sell weapons to Bashar al-Assad despite criticism from the United States and other Western countries. Russia’s historical and economic ties to Syria provide one explanation of why Russia does not want to intervene in Syria. Opposing intervention in Syria also provides Russia with an important perk: power in the international community. Russia’s opposition to intervention in Syria has allowed Russia to become a more prominent state actor in the international community. In my opinion China’s opposition to intervention in Syria is less clear than Russia’s since there is no clear link between the two countries. Although, China does historically have a foreign policy of non-interference which would explain why China does not want to intervene in Syria.